Biden’s victory in the Democratic primary came with a warning from progressives, young voters and Arab American Democrats in the form of an “uncommitted” protest vote: Change course on Israel’s war in Gaza or risk losing a significant chunk of support in what could be a decisive general election state.
On the GOP side, Trump’s win also failed to conceal a potentially damaging weakness. Once again, a sizable portion of Republicans came out to vote against the unquestioned leader of their party. That it happened in Michigan, one of the handful of states that swung from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, gives those concerns – and the actions fueling them – outsize importance in a contest where both candidates need strong base turnout to stand a chance in November.
Here are the takeaways from the 2024 Michigan presidential primary:
November warning signs for Biden and Trump
Despite a recent tweak in rhetoric, and some eleventh-hour chatter about an imminent ceasefire, Biden and his team have stood by Israel’s right to defend itself. More than 29,000 Palestinians have been killed so far in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health, in response to Hamas’ October 7 attacks on Israel. And as the civilian death toll – including thousands of children – continues to rise, so too has pressure grown on Biden to publicly push for a ceasefire.
In the run-up to the primary, a coalition called Listen to Michigan asked Democrats unhappy with Biden’s handling of the war, along with those critical of the US role in arming Israel’s military, to vote “uncommitted” – to send a message to the White House that what happens in the coming days and weeks could upend an election still more eight months away. Around midnight ET, with about 50% of the votes counted, “uncommitted” was hovering at around 13%, a raw total well in excess of Trump’s margin of victory in 2016. (A Biden campaign email touting the president’s Michigan win made no mention or hint of the Israel-Hamas conflict.)
For Trump, the roughly 30% of Republicans who voted either for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or on the GOP’s “uncommitted” line might be more difficult to parse. Though his third presidential nomination in three tries could be clinched in a few weeks, the fact remains that a sizable group of Republicans are either firmly opposed to him or still to be won over – including in a state that he won by a sliver in 2016 and then lost to Biden by roughly 150,000 votes four years later.
‘Uncommitted’ campaign claims success
Supporters of the movement urging Michigan Democratic voters to check “uncommitted” said their campaign had been a success because it had attracted enough votes to get Biden’s attention.
“We know Joe Biden is going to be our nominee. So it’s a very, very significant outcome,” former Michigan Rep. Andy Levin, a supporter of the “uncommitted” effort, told CNN on Tuesday night. “My worry was that this primary would happen, and the president wouldn’t get the message about how mad people are.”
Levin said he thought that the message that Biden can’t win Michigan in November unless he “changes course” had been “effectively communicated” through Tuesday’s result.
The “uncommitted” campaign kept its focus narrow, aiming to convince Biden’s White House to seek a permanent ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
“We are moving in the traditions of anti-war protesters who came before us,” Abbas Alawieh, a spokesman for Listen to Michigan, said at the group’s gathering at a Middle Eastern restaurant in Dearborn. Alawieh called for a moment of silence for the children killed in Gaza. “Stop killing our families, that’s all we’re asking for,” he said.
Progressives in Minnesota, another Midwestern state with a sizable Muslim population, launched a similar push for uncommitted votes ahead of its Super Tuesday primary, arguing that the contest – a low-stakes affair, with Biden all but guaranteed of winning the 2024 Democratic nomination — is the best time to attempt to send a message to the president.
